The coming week will be crucial as it will be heavily loaded with macroeconomic data. Economically, market participants will be watching data from the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for August, which will be announced on October 12. India’s IIP slowed to a four-month low of 2.4 percent in July. Traders will also be looking at consumer price index (CPI) data for September, to be announced on October 12. Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data for September is expected to be released on October 14. India’s WPI fell to 12.41 percent in August 2022. While minutes of monetary policy meetings and final trade balance data are due out on October 14.
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With the earnings season kicking off for the second quarter, market participants will be looking at some key results to be released next week. TCS, Delta Corp, HCL Technologies, Wipro, Cyient, Infosys, Mindtree, Bajaj-Auto, Shree Cement and HDFC Bank are major companies releasing their numbers.
On the global front, investors will be eyeing little economic data from the world’s largest economy, the United States (US), starting with Redbook and Consumer Inflation Expectations on Oct. 11, The Producer Price Index, Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC) Minutes on Oct. 12, Core Inflation, First Unemployment Claims Oct. 13, Retail Sales, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Baker Hughes Total Rig Count Oct. 14. In addition, traders will be watching the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meeting in Washington DC scheduled for Oct. 10-16.
Market veteran Deepak Jasani, chief of retail research at HDFC Securities, said: “Asian stock markets were largely trading lower on Friday following generally negative signals from global markets overnight as traders continue to worry about the outlook for the future. interest rates and the impact higher rates will have on the economy European stocks moved in and out of positive territory on Friday as investors waited for the release of an all-important US job market report expected to help chart the way forward for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The battered Credit Suisse Group rose after announcing a $3 billion bond repurchase to calm investors’ nerves.”
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Jasani added: “Nifty was up 1.29% over the week after falling from the previous three weeks. In the process, it filled the down-gap on the previous week’s weekly charts and nullified the resulting extreme bearishness. On the daily charts, however, the Nifty filled the previous day’s up-gap, nullifying the major bullishness. Overall, Nifty’s trend could stay in range with a mild bullish bias. Over the next week, we’ll have some idea of the direction the US Fed wants to take with the nonfarm payrolls (mandatory October 7 evening) and inflation reports (expected October 13) coming out of the US. The first batch of Indian second quarter corporate earnings will also kick off in the coming week and provide triggers for stock-specific action. The Nifty could be between 17,114-17,497 points over the next week. Major Indian stock benchmarks closed the week with gains of more than one percent, breaking the three-week losing streak, with The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Sensex rising 764.37 points or 1.33 percent to 58,191.29 during the week ended October 7, 2022, while The Nifty rose 220.30 or 1.29 percent to 17,314.65.
No fewer than 37 stocks in the Nifty 50 index delivered positive returns for investors last week. With a gain of 8.3 percent, Coal India emerged as the largest riser in the index. It is followed by Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (+5.7 percent), JSW Steel (+5.4 percent), Hindalco Industries (+5.2 percent) and Titan Company (4.8 percent).
Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, Wipro and Axis Bank also rose more than 3 percent. On the other hand, Eicher Motors, Hindustan Unilever and Tata Consumer Products fell 4.8 percent, 3.6 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. As for the sector, the BSE Metal index gained 5.8 percent last week. BSE Capital Goods and BSE Realty indices have also returned more than 3 percent. In contrast, the BSE Fast Moving Consumer Goods index fell by 1 percent.
Market Watcher Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities said: “The benchmark Nifty remained volatile before closing on a muted note. However, the index has closed above the 50 EMA, confirming the ongoing positive trend. Going forward, the trend will continue. expected to remain positive as long as Nifty remains above 17300. On the upside, the 17,600-17,700 zone may act as resistance, while on the downside, support is visible at 17,200. Bank Nifty remained volatile all day, but the index managed to above the 50 EMA on the daily chart. The RSI enters a bullish crossover. In the near term, the index could move towards 40,000. On the downside, support is visible at 38500.”