Group 2 scenarios, T20 World Cup 2022

South Africa’s five-wicket win against India brings them a lot closer to a spot in the semi-finals, while at the same time jeopardizing Pakistan’s chances of qualifying. Here’s a look at how the teams are shaping up with six games to go in Group 2.

South AfricaPlayed: 3, Points: 5, NRR: 2,772, Rem matches: vs Pak, Neth

With five points in the pot, an excellent net run rate (NRR) of 2,772 and a game against the Netherlands still to come, South Africa is in a prime position to secure a place in the semi-finals. If they beat the Netherlands and get to seven points, they are almost certainly through. If Bangladesh and Zimbabwe win their remaining matches they would finish on eight and seven points respectively, but even then South Africa’s NRR should be enough for qualification. If India win one of their two remaining matches, against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, then at least one of those teams will pose no threat to South Africa if they make it to seven.

IndiaPlayed: 3, Points: 4, NRR: 0.844, Rem matches: vs Ban, Zim

India’s loss to South Africa means they need to win their last two matches to ensure qualification. If they beat Bangladesh but lose to Zimbabwe, both Zimbabwe and South Africa could finish on seven or more points. If India beats Zimbabwe but loses to Bangladesh, Bangladesh and South Africa can qualify for India. Currently there is a 70% chance of showers on Wednesday when India takes on Bangladesh so they will be keeping an eye on the weather as well.

BangladeshPlayed: 3, Points: 4, NRR: -1.533, Brake matches: vs Ind, Pak

Bangladesh is on the same level as India but their NRR is much poorer which could cost them when it comes to NRR. Their last two matches are against the two Asian giants, and they will have to win at least one to stay in the game. If they both win and finish in eight, they qualify regardless of other results.

Zimbabwe Played: 3, Points: 3, NRR: -0.050, Brake matches: vs Neth, Ind

Zimbabwe must win both remaining matches to remain in the hunt. If they beat the Netherlands and lose to India, they will end up with just five points, which will almost certainly not be enough.

Pakistan Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: 0.765, Rem matches: vs SA, Ban

Pakistan’s chances have been hurt by South Africa’s victory over India. Pakistan can finish on a maximum of six points, while South Africa go to seven if they beat the Netherlands. However, if India lose one of their two remaining matches and finish in six, it could turn into another NRR battle between the arch-rivals.

For example, if Pakistan win the last two, Bangladesh beat India, which in turn defeated Zimbabwe, then the three Asian teams could all finish in six points, fighting for one spot (if South Africa beat the Netherlands and finish in seven ). Then Pakistan’s relatively healthy NRR of 0.765 could be an asset, as India’s could slip if they lose a match.

NetherlandsPlayed: 3, Points: 0, NRR: -1,948, Brake matches: vs Zim, SA

With zero points from three matches, the Netherlands is out of the tournament.

S Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo statistics editor. @rajeshstats

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